Surprise landslide victory for Coalition?

There's a landslide election victory in the offing for the Liberal/National Coalition, and apparently it's quite an unexpected surprise to mainstream TV commentators such as those I have been watching on Sky News. To me it's not that surprising.

My own survey of people I know is that most are pissed off with Labor.  Only the rusted-ons are voting Labor this election.  But the polls and the main stream media (MSM) have been saying it was a much closer race until this point.  At the beginning of the campaign some Labor commentators were even saying they could win.

I've always taken a grain of salt about polls and about anything the MSM has to say in general.   One problem is not everyone answers a poll; another is the drop-off in land-line use.  Polls are usually cold-calling by telephone and not everyone, teenagers for example, are receptive to a telephone survey.  Not everyone answers the phone at night.  And some people hang up as soon as they know it's a survey.

Another problem is the margin of error which is usually around 3%.  A swing of 6% could mean nothing statistically due to the margin of error, yet all movements no matter how small will be reported by a MSM who is desperate to stay relevant and stop losing ratings to the alternative media.

At the end of the day polls don't mean as much as a real vote.  In 5 days time the will of the electorate will no longer be subject to media spin, and I expect a landslide victory to the Coalition.

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How will I be voting?  Not Labor and not Greens, that's how.  Beyond that, don't know.  Last year there were only four candidates for the seat of Rankin in the lower house to choose from: Labor, Green, Lib/Nats and one other...can't remember, maybe an independent.  It doesn't matter how I vote though as Rankin (think Logan City, Queensland) is a perennial Labor seat.

I think I voted conservative for the first time last election in 2010.  In my youth I voted Greens and preferenced Labor.  In my middle age I don't think I can vote Green ever again in my life -- I've grown and they are even further out of touch with reality.  I'll consider Labor again in a generation once they clean up their act.

I wish there was a libertarian party in Australia along the lines of US Congressman Ron Paul.  Though I'm not a traditional conservative, strangely the main stream party closest to my views now are the Nationals -- something I never thought I'd say in my youth.

Speaking of Nationals, good luck to Barnaby Joyce in Tony Windsor's seat of New England.  (I was raised in Armidale, NSW in that electorate.)  I may not be as conservative as Barnaby, but the refreshing thing about him is his straight talking attitude.  And he sticks up for Australia.

Tony Abbott can come across as hyper-scripted and minder-managed.  Joyce is like the opposite: everything he says sounds like it was just blurted off the top of his head, which I like.  Barnaby for PM!