Monday, 9 September 2013

Team America: World Police




The question of whether the US should attack Syria is not about justice or chemical weapons, it's about whether the US should be the world policeman.  It's a role America has been stuck with since WW2.  

Although nominally a republic, thanks to their security posture and global military deployment, the US is effectively an empire.  The critical element in that empire is oil and therefore the critical area is the Middle East.

The other issue is that the American military industrial complex is so big it needs to be fed with war every now and then to justify its existence; preferably two or three small ones and one big one per decade. 

I cringed when I saw Obama in Russia at a press conference at the G20 trying to justify US involvement in Syria.  He was too honest in explaining the situation saying e.g. that well America is the only country with this capability.  Yes, but that's not justification for war.

Obama is a good talker, but when it comes to the War On Terror he needs to take a leaf out of George W Bush's book and stop the "maybes" and talk more terms of absolutes.  He needed to talk up the War On Terror aspect more.  

Has the beneficial effect of 9-11 as being a Pearl-Harbor-like-event for US imperialism really dried up so much?  Did Bush ruin international sympathy over 9-11 with the Iraq war?  Certainly Americans are tired of war and of the War On Terror in general.

Who's responsible for the Syrian chemical weapons attack?

Chemical warfare agents are extremely difficult to manufacture and distribute.  A ragtag bunch of rebels in the Syrian desert can't make such weapons.  Of all the weapons you could want to use, chemical weapons are the least practical and least cost effective to make.

So that leaves the Syrian regime and western powers such as Israel and the US who could actually make weaponisable chemical weapons and deploy them to Syria.  Syria is one of the few non-signatories to the chemical weapons convention and is thought to possess a stockpile of them.  But I don't see an incentive for Assad to use these weapons on his own people.  The West, however, does have an interest insofar as generating a pretext to attack.

The Grand Chessboard

False flag attacks are how any major power gets the ball rolling on military action.  Military conflict is politics by other means...someone said (I think Hitler).  If the US wants to be involved in conflict: it will be. 

Whether it's the Gulf of Tonkin to start the Vietnam war or the explosion in the battleship Maine to start the Spanish-American war: it will happen if the will and means are there.

The United States wants to be involved in the Middle East as part of what Zbigniew Brzezinski described as the grand chessboard -- control of the world's most strategic area in the oil rich Central Asia/Middle East.  Put it this way: if this chemical attack happened in Uganda would the US be prepared to become involved?  Of course not, there's no oil in Uganda!


The Grand Chessboard

The reason events in the Middle East are always in the US's vital national interest is because without importing oil from the middle East to power their vehicles, the economy would grind to a halt.  That's why many in the US are desperate to develop fracking so as to finally free it from Middle Eastern oil dependency.

There are two factions in the Middle East roughly divided along the Sunni - Shia fracture in Islam.  The Sunni-Saudi side is backed by the US.  They tolerate Israel in return for US assistance (where "assistance" is of the kind of a mafia protection racket; we assist you or we break your legs).    The other side is the Shia Iran/Syria side backed by Russia.  (Most in Syria are Sunni Muslim but Assad is Shiite.) Let's call this side the axis of evil.

The axis of evil is backed by Russia, but Russia is not the superpower it used to be.  One of the strange things I hear of the coming war in the Middle East is that it will lead to WW3, I don't agree.  I think the limited action in Syria will lead to worse consequences such as Iranian involvement, and I think that's kind of the point -- to provoke Iran into a response that will lead to a wider Middle East conflict which the US is ready for -- that's what they've been preparing for all this time: confrontation with Iran.  

All Syrian attack contingencies from the US military planers would include the possibility of Iranian retaliation. But it's not going to lead to all out WW3; that's a ridiculous notion.

Russia backs Syria and Iran, but it's not going to start WW3.  China is even less likely to become involved.  China sells most of its stuff to the US and holds trillions in US government bonds.  It's not going to fight the golden goose that lays its economic eggs.

The Report From Iron Mountain



The Report From Iron Mountain was released in 1967.  Some say it's a hoax; if so it's a hoax about a true thing.  It basically says that the US has a war-based economy, continuing from the WW2 economy, and that economy needs to be fed with a war every now and then to keep it going.

Libertarian Congressman Ron Paul proposed pulling back from the Empire and the war based economy to a pre-war stance of bringing the troops home and defending the US within its borders.  This would cost a lot less and allow the federal budget to be balanced and the deficit finally reduced -- Paul's so-called austerity plan.  

Most US voters have the view that America should no longer be the world policeman, and case in point: should not get involved in Syria.  If Congress doesn't authorise military action against Syria then it's time to re-examine the US's position as Team America: World Police.

Monday, 2 September 2013

Surprise landslide victory for Coalition?

There's a landslide election victory in the offing for the Liberal/National Coalition, and apparently it's quite an unexpected surprise to mainstream TV commentators such as those I have been watching on Sky News. To me it's not that surprising.

My own survey of people I know is that most are pissed off with Labor.  Only the rusted-ons are voting Labor this election.  But the polls and the main stream media (MSM) have been saying it was a much closer race until this point.  At the beginning of the campaign some Labor commentators were even saying they could win.

I've always taken a grain of salt about polls and about anything the MSM has to say in general.   One problem is not everyone answers a poll; another is the drop-off in land-line use.  Polls are usually cold-calling by telephone and not everyone, teenagers for example, are receptive to a telephone survey.  Not everyone answers the phone at night.  And some people hang up as soon as they know it's a survey.

Another problem is the margin of error which is usually around 3%.  A swing of 6% could mean nothing statistically due to the margin of error, yet all movements no matter how small will be reported by a MSM who is desperate to stay relevant and stop losing ratings to the alternative media.

At the end of the day polls don't mean as much as a real vote.  In 5 days time the will of the electorate will no longer be subject to media spin, and I expect a landslide victory to the Coalition.

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How will I be voting?  Not Labor and not Greens, that's how.  Beyond that, don't know.  Last year there were only four candidates for the seat of Rankin in the lower house to choose from: Labor, Green, Lib/Nats and one other...can't remember, maybe an independent.  It doesn't matter how I vote though as Rankin (think Logan City, Queensland) is a perennial Labor seat.

I think I voted conservative for the first time last election in 2010.  In my youth I voted Greens and preferenced Labor.  In my middle age I don't think I can vote Green ever again in my life -- I've grown and they are even further out of touch with reality.  I'll consider Labor again in a generation once they clean up their act.

I wish there was a libertarian party in Australia along the lines of US Congressman Ron Paul.  Though I'm not a traditional conservative, strangely the main stream party closest to my views now are the Nationals -- something I never thought I'd say in my youth.

Speaking of Nationals, good luck to Barnaby Joyce in Tony Windsor's seat of New England.  (I was raised in Armidale, NSW in that electorate.)  I may not be as conservative as Barnaby, but the refreshing thing about him is his straight talking attitude.  And he sticks up for Australia.


Tony Abbott can come across as hyper-scripted and minder-managed.  Joyce is like the opposite: everything he says sounds like it was just blurted off the top of his head, which I like.  Barnaby for PM!